The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time. This announcement will be accompanied by the release of a Monetary Policy Report, which provides the Bank's updated economic projections. The decision on the policy interest rate directly influences the prime rates set by Canadian banks, which in turn affects variable-rate mortgages, lines of credit, and other loans. Understanding the timing and potential outcomes of this announcement is crucial for Canadian borrowers, savers, and investors planning their personal finances.
Understanding the October 28, 2026 Announcement
The Bank of Canada makes eight scheduled interest rate announcements each year. The upcoming event on October 28, 2026, is one of the four annual announcements that includes a Monetary Policy Report. This report contains the Bank's base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, along with its assessment of risks. The announcement itself is a press release that explains the Governing Council's decision on the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate. As of early October 2026, the policy rate stands at 2.25 percent, where it has been held since October 2025. The Bank's decision is based on its mandate to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable, with a target of keeping the Consumer Price Index inflation rate at 2 percent.
More detailed information for the event is typically made available in a media advisory published approximately three business days prior. The Bank of Canada's website is the official source for these advisories and the subsequent press release. The policy rate is the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend one-day funds among themselves. Changes to this rate influence the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses across the country. The Bank's Governing Council, which includes the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor, is responsible for making the final decision on the rate setting.
Current Economic Context and Forecast
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 percent for the seventh consecutive decision on September 2, 2026. At that time, most big bank prime rates remained at 4.45 percent. The reasons for holding the rate have shifted throughout 2026. Early in the pause, the concern was weak economic growth, but by September 2026, the Bank was warning about inflation risks from sustained energy prices and global trade disruption. Canada's headline inflation was reported at 3.1 percent in September 2026, driven primarily by higher oil and fuel prices, which placed it above the Bank's preferred target range of 1 to 3 percent.
The Bank's preferred core measure, the three-month annualized rate, rose from 2.3 percent in August to 2.6 percent in September 2026. Business and consumer inflation expectations suggest inflation may stay higher for longer. Despite these inflationary pressures, economic growth has shown volatility. Real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the fastest pace in more than three years. However, preliminary data suggested momentum faded, with real GDP unchanged in July and an estimated 0.2 percent gain in August. The current economic landscape presents a complex picture for the Bank, balancing inflation risks against the potential for slower growth.
Market Expectations and Analyst Outlook
As of early October 2026, market expectations for the October 28 announcement were mixed. Money markets had priced in roughly 100 basis points of Bank of Canada rate increases over the following twelve months. Following a strong September jobs report on October 9, 2026, money markets priced in about a one-in-four chance of a quarter-point hike on October 28. However, most economists at Canada's largest banks still expected the first increase to occur in 2027, not at the October meeting. The Bank of Canada's own policy rate forecast, as of October 2026, indicated the rate would remain at 2.25 percent through the end of 2026.
Some industry forecasts project the policy rate will rise to 2.50 percent in the first quarter of 2027 and to 2.75 percent in the second quarter of 2027. Commentary from mortgage industry leaders suggests that with energy prices high and global debt levels adding pressure, the uncertainty is pointing rates upward. The key factor for the Bank will be whether it needs to act to nudge the path for inflation back towards its 2 percent target. The decision will weigh the risk of persistent inflation against the economic threat from trade tensions and slowing growth.
Immediate Impact on Mortgage Rates and Borrowers
The Bank of Canada's policy rate directly affects the prime rate set by chartered banks, which is the basis for variable mortgage rates and lines of credit. Since the prime rate has held at 4.45 percent, variable-rate borrowers have experienced payment stability throughout the rate pause. For fixed mortgage rates, the picture is different. Fixed rates are influenced more by the bond market, particularly the five-year Government of Canada bond yield. This yield hit a 52-week high near 3.73 percent on September 28, 2026, prompting all Big Six banks to raise select fixed rates in recent weeks.
By the end of 2026, approximately 33 percent of Canadian mortgage holders are expected to face higher monthly payments upon renewal. About 75 percent of borrowers facing an increase have five-year fixed-rate mortgages. For those with fixed-rate mortgages renewing in 2026, payment increases are expected to average around 20 percent. Borrowers with variable-rate mortgages face a wider range of outcomes at renewal. About 10 percent could see payments rise by more than 40 percent, while roughly 25 percent could see payments fall by at least 7 percent, depending on how they managed payments during the previous rate hike cycle.
Related Bank of Canada Publications and Events
Following the October 28 interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada publishes several related documents that provide deeper insight into its decision-making process. A summary of deliberations by the Governing Council for the October 28 decision is scheduled for publication on November 10, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time. This summary offers a record of the key points discussed during the policy meeting held two weeks prior. The Bank also conducts regular surveys to gauge market and economic conditions. The Market Participants Survey, which collects views from financial market participants on macroeconomic variables and monetary policy, is scheduled for release on November 9, 2026.
The Senior Loan Officer Survey, which gathers information on business-lending practices, is set for release on November 20, 2026. These publications, along with the Monetary Policy Report, provide Canadians with a comprehensive view of the economic factors influencing the Bank's decisions. The next scheduled interest rate announcement after October 28 is on December 9, 2026. The Bank also holds an annual economic conference and observes national holidays like Remembrance Day, which falls on November 11, 2026.
Key Economic Indicators the Bank is Watching
The Bank of Canada's Governing Council monitors a wide array of data between rate announcements. The most critical indicators include inflation measures, employment figures, GDP growth, and housing market activity. For the October 2026 decision, recent inflation data will be a primary focus. The Consumer Price Index report for September 2026 showed headline inflation at 3.1 percent, with the Bank's preferred three-month annualized core measure rising to 2.6 percent. The Bank has stated it will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.
Employment data is another key indicator. The unemployment rate edged down to 6.4 percent in July 2026. GDP growth showed strength in the second quarter but signs of fading momentum in the third quarter. Housing activity, which had been weak, showed some signs of stabilization and a rebound in certain provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Finally, the Bank is closely watching developments in global trade, particularly the status of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement and any new tariffs, as these pose significant risks to the economic outlook.
Common Mistakes in Interpreting Rate Announcements
Many Canadians make the error of assuming the Bank of Canada's policy rate is the same as their mortgage rate. The policy rate influences the prime rate, which lenders use as a base for variable-rate products, but fixed mortgage rates are primarily set by bond market yields. Another common mistake is focusing only on the headline rate decision and ignoring the accompanying statement and Monetary Policy Report. The language used by the Bank, such as its assessment of risks or its forward guidance, can be as important as the rate hold or change itself.
Some borrowers also mistakenly believe that a rate hold means all borrowing costs remain static. As seen in 2026, fixed mortgage rates can rise independently due to bond market movements even when the policy rate is on hold. Finally, individuals often overlook the regional differences in how rate changes affect housing markets and household finances. Data from Equifax Canada indicated that Ontario and British Columbia were outliers in 2026, with missed payments on non-mortgage debt among Ontario mortgage holders rising significantly. Severe mortgage delinquency rates in the second quarter of 2026 were up 33.8 percent by balance from a year earlier.
Historical Policy Rate Changes Leading to 2026
The Bank of Canada's policy rate has undergone significant changes in the years leading up to 2026. The rate reached a high of 5.0 percent in June 2024 before beginning a descent. The Bank lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent on September 17, 2025. It followed with another 25 basis point cut on October 29, 2025, bringing the rate to its current level of 2.25 percent. At the time of that cut, the Bank stated that if the economy evolved as projected, the Governing Council saw the rate at about the right level. Every scheduled announcement since October 29, 2025, has resulted in a decision to hold the rate at 2.25 percent. The table below outlines the recent history of the Bank's policy rate decisions.
The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 percent for seven consecutive decisions as of September 2, 2026. This series of holds represents the longest pause in rate changes since the current cycle began. The reasons cited for holding have evolved from concerns over economic contraction to worries about energy-driven inflation and trade disruption by late 2026. The current rate of 2.25 percent is substantially lower than the peak of 5.0 percent seen in mid-2024.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time on October 28, 2026. The Bank publishes its decisions and reports in Eastern Time. Detailed timing is confirmed in a media advisory released approximately three business days before the event.
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in October 2026?
As of early October 2026, market expectations for an October rate hike were divided. Money markets priced in about a one in four chance of a quarter point hike. Most economists at Canada's largest banks expected the first increase to occur in 2027. The Bank of Canada's own forecast indicated the policy rate would remain at 2.25 percent through the end of 2026.
What is the Monetary Policy Report released with the announcement?
The Monetary Policy Report is a comprehensive document published four times a year. It contains the Bank of Canada's base case projection for inflation and economic growth in Canada. The report also includes the Bank's detailed assessment of risks to the economic outlook. This report provides the rationale behind the interest rate decision.
What is the current Bank of Canada interest rate?
As of October 2026, the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate is 2.25 percent. This rate has been in place since October 29, 2025. It has been held steady through seven consecutive scheduled announcements in 2026. The corresponding prime rate at major chartered banks is 4.45 percent.
How does the Bank of Canada's rate affect my mortgage?
The Bank of Canada's policy rate directly influences the prime rate set by banks, which variable mortgage rates are tied to. For example, the prime rate has been 4.45 percent since October 2025, providing stability for variable rate payments during the recent pause. Fixed mortgage rates are more influenced by bond market yields, such as the five year Government of Canada bond yield, which rose significantly from late 2025 to September 2026, leading to higher fixed rates. Therefore, while the policy rate hold has kept variable rates steady, fixed rates have already increased due to movements in the bond market. The Bank's rate decisions are based on factors like inflation and economic growth, which indirectly shape the cost of borrowing for all mortgage types.
Where can I find the official Bank of Canada announcement?
The official Bank of Canada announcement is published on the Bank's website. The next scheduled announcement is on October 28, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time, and it will include a Monetary Policy Report. A media advisory with the precise timing and details is typically published on the website approximately three business days before the event. These announcements occur on eight scheduled dates each year, with four including the comprehensive Monetary Policy Report. The press release explains the factors behind the interest rate decision and the setting for the overnight rate target.
Sources and further reading
- Mortgage Rate Forecast (2026 to 2030) truenorthmortgage.ca
- Upcoming events bankofcanada.ca
- Mortgage Rates Forecast Canada 2026 to 2030 nesto.ca
- Canada Interest Rate Forecast 2026 to 2031 myperch.io
- 7 Holds in a Row: A Timeline of the Bank of Canada's Rate ... blog.remax.ca
This article explains how things work and is not financial, tax or legal advice. Rules, limits and rates change, so check the current figures with the Canada Revenue Agency, your province or your financial institution before you act.