VANCOUVER
The B.C. Real Estate Association expects home sales in the province to fall 4.5 percent this year to just over 67,000 units, warning of mounting headwinds for the market.
Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said prospective buyers this year had several reasons to hesitate, including an oil-price shock, trade tensions with the United States, slower immigration and rising interest rates.
“Following a 2025 that saw the weakest year of sales in over a decade, faint signs of a 2026 recovery were thwarted by a resurgent oil price shock and further escalation in Canada’s trade war with the United States,” the association’s fourth-quarter forecast says.
The forecast says active listings in B.C. are at their highest levels since 2015, and new-home inventory is also raised.
It predicts that the supply pressure will push the average home price down 1.2 percent to just over $941,000.
The forecast calls for a modest recovery in 2027 with sales projected to increase 7.2 percent, but Ogmundson says that’s in anticipation of a decline in the impacts of new U.S. tariffs and reductions in fixed mortgage rates.
The forecast says a calming of these headwinds next year should stimulate housing activity, which, paired with flattening inventories, is expected to drive price growth of 2.4 percent in 2027, bringing the provincial average price to $964,200.
It adds it is anticipating a long-awaited rebound in the Lower Mainland market.
Greater Vancouver home sales are projected to reach 23,000 units this year, down 3 percent from the year before, while the Fraser Valley is forecast to see a 4.4 percent decrease to 11,000 units.
The largest decline is expected in the Chilliwack area of the Lower Mainland, with unit sales falling from 2,300 last year to 1,900 this year, an 18 percent decrease.
Regional variations
Within the jurisdiction of Greater Vancouver Realtors, the average home price is expected to increase 2.2 percent in 2027 to $1.25 million, following a projected 3 percent sales decline this year.
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s jurisdiction faces a steeper price adjustment before its expected recovery.
Its average home sale price is projected to fall by 4.8 percent to $962,900 in 2026, bringing the annual average below $1 million.
An anticipated 1.8 percent average home price increase in 2027 would add $17,100, bringing the average to $980,000.
Together, the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley regions would account for about 62 percent of the additional 4,815 sales forecast across B.C. in 2027.
The forecast notes that federal measures outlined in last week’s 2026 budget could also influence the housing market’s recovery.
Maintaining immigration levels below earlier peaks could continue to restrain growth in housing demand, while providing a pathway to permanent residency for up to 200,000 temporary residents already in Canada by the end of 2027 could give some households greater confidence to buy.
Meanwhile, the federal government’s planned exemption for new homes from the federal foreign homebuyer ban could attract additional buyers and investment.
However, that potential new momentum could be partly offset by rising borrowing costs.
On Oct. 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percent to reach 2.5 percent, representing its first increase since July 2023.
The central bank has left the door open to further hikes, with its final scheduled decision of 2026 set for Dec. 9.
“With population growth expected to remain subdued through 2027, B.C. faces limited capacity to grow at trend levels,” the forecast says.
e2gold.ca reported earlier this month that the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs was a major issue in recent American midterm elections.
This story was written by the e2gold.ca newsroom from reporting by BNN Bloomberg, Canadian Mortgage Trends and Daily Hive. Quotes are checked word for word against that reporting.