
Statistics Canada will release its October labour force survey on Friday, with economists expecting a modest job gain after a sharp decline in September.
According to a Reuters poll of economists by LSEG Data & Analytics, the Canadian economy is expected to have added 13,600 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 6.5 percent.
This follows a loss of 68,000 jobs in September, which pushed the unemployment rate up a tenth of a percentage point.
Royal Bank of Canada notes that September's employment decline was largely concentrated in public-sector positions, particularly education and healthcare, rather than industries directly exposed to U.S. tariffs.
"RBC also highlights early signs of improving hiring demand in October, suggesting that trade restrictions may have stalled the labour market's recovery without triggering a broader deterioration," the bank said.
The employment figures take on particular importance after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate on Oct. 28, marking its first increase in more than three years.
Although the central bank has left the door open to additional monetary tightening, future decisions will depend on incoming economic growth and inflation data.
RBC anticipates a slightly stronger increase of 15,000 jobs and a modest decline in the unemployment rate to 6.4 percent.
The bank argues that the impact of U.S. tariffs remains concentrated in directly affected sectors, while more than 80 percent of Canadian exports to the U.S. continue to benefit from duty-free access under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The economy has faced headwinds with escalations in the trade war with the United States after talks broke down in late August and a fresh round of tariffs by President Donald Trump.
e2gold.ca reported earlier this month that the economic fallout from tariffs was a major issue in U.S. battleground states.
Investors will closely monitor whether employment conditions are stabilizing after the economy shed nearly 110,000 jobs over August and September.
Beyond the headline figures, market participants will pay particular attention to manufacturing employment, full-time positions, wage growth and the participation rate.
A stronger-than-expected employment report could reinforce expectations of further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes, particularly if accompanied by resilient wage growth.
Conversely, another disappointing reading could raise concerns about the Canadian economy's ability to withstand ongoing trade tensions.
The simultaneous release of the U.S. employment report could also amplify volatility in the Canadian dollar, as investors assess the relative strength of the two labour markets.
Economists in the U.S. are looking for a gain of 59,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2 percent.
Analysts say a solid U.S. jobs report would likely give the Federal Reserve more confidence to proceed with another rate hike in December.
Traders currently see a 67 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike next month, according to CME FedWatch.
This story was written by the e2gold.ca newsroom from reporting by The Globe and Mail, FXStreet, CNBC and IndexBox. Quotes are checked word for word against that reporting.